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Latest 3 delineators down on Edgewood ... more to fall in 2024?
They waited until the year was coming to a close, but the property-gobblers at Yale bought the 300 George St. office/lab building in time to make at least one 2023 prediction come true.
In this space almost 12 months ago, as part of a longer list of prognostications, I predicted that Yale would buy the building. That surprised some people at Yale itself. Then, on Nov. 30, Yale quietly plunked down more than $139.6 million to buy the downtown business center and begin the gradual process of taking it off the tax rolls.
Believe it or not, I got some other predictions right as well. I of course blew others. Following is a scorecard of how I did. By my count, six predictions came true; four flopped. But don’t trust my math! Click here to read the original predictions to see if we fudged clear-cut misses into “grey areas” in order to burnish our record and avoid taking responsibility for our mistakes. Afterwards, a new set of predictions for 2024 follows.
2023 Prediction #1: Yale will buy the 300 George Street medical-tech center and reveal how thoroughly it took New Haven to the cleaners in its “historic” “game-changing” deal.
Correct!
2023 Prediction #2: The historic 17,322 square-foot two-story domed-ceiling marble-floored Corinthian-columned former Union Trust public bank-teller lobby across from the Green at the corner of Church and Elm Streets (now the empty first floor of a renovated apartment building) will become a lunchtime food court incubator and happy-hour and evening flapper or speakeasy-themed bar/nightclub rented often for private weddings or galas.
Oops — the space is still empty. Any takers out there? (If only I had predicted that another former downtown bank building owned by the same landlord would win approval to become a new night club called “The Vault.”)
2023 Prediction #3: A proposal to move from 2‑year to 4‑year mayoral terms will appear as a charter-reform referendum question in November, but two factors will make the outcome too close to call and may doom its prospects of passage.
Nope again! The question did appear on the ballot as part of a broader referendum with other issues crammed in. But that in fact helped pass the 4‑year-term change as well as some unpopular ideas rather than doom the whole package.
2023 Prediction #4: The De Blasio-Adams Elicker-Abdussabur Democratic mayoral primary will upend traditional political calculations on two scores.
Here’s one where I’ll claim a victory but reasonable people will disagree. Abdussabur, who is Black, attracted some of his strongest support in the largely white East Shore after he championed Morris Cove tax breaks and criticized the removal of the Christopher Columbus statue from Wooster Square. Mayor Justin Elicker, who is white, received significant support from Black and Latino elected officials. And I would argue that the race did, as predicted, “feature a spirited discussion on schools, policing, taxes/budgeting, slumlords, economic development — all in ways that defy categorizing either of them as ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative.’” On the other hand, Abdussabur didn’t end up making it to the primary ballot; a third Democrat, Liam Brennan, ended up waging a lively issues-focused campaign til the end. But the outcome wasn’t close.
2023 Prediction #5: New Haven will hire its first Latino or Latina schools superintendent to succeed retiring Iline Tracey.
Correct! The school board approved Madeline Negrón’s hiring on April 19.
2023 Prediction #6: Megalandords will continue snapping up poverty properties but at a slower pace.
True! Mandy Management continued growing, but Ocean started selling off its properties.
2023 Prediction #7: The lot at the corner of Orange and Elm will remain a hole in the ground.
True! Sadly.
2023 Prediction #8: Cops, firefighters and 911 operators (once their ranks are replenished) will learn to love the new “crisis response team” of emergency-response social workers and peer counselors, which will move on schedule or faster from its pilot phase.
True, at least based on what I’m told — if not “love,” perhaps appreciate and roll with. Which could be wrong, and I’m sure is not universal!
2023 Prediction #9: No more than seven out of the city’s 30 incumbent or Democratic Party-endorsed alders will have even token opposition in either the Democratic primary or general election.
Wrong: 10 out of 30 alders had general election candidates. I’m tempted to still claim it; most of the races were not competitive, including some last-minute petition candidates. But a challenger did prevail in the Democratic primary against an incumbent in Fair Haven’s Ward 15: Alder Ernie Santiago lost his seat to challenger Frankie Redente. No one came close to defeating the party-endorsed Democrat in the general election, except for the two candidates taking on Morris Cove’s Sal DeCola, who split the opposition vote. But I did write “token.” So it’s not a “grey area” after all. Just wrong. Oh well.
2023 Prediction #10: Green initiatives will fuel much of the exciting new energy in town.
Hmmm … Technically true, since the “ClimateHaven” eco-incubator did open on Chapel Street and a new city climate office opened and grew and began crafting initiatives. But let’s leave it undecided for another year to await concrete results.
2023 Prediction #11: The Civilian Review Board will hold at least one meeting in the final six months of the year.
That prediction was scratched because of being too “unpredictable.” So it doesn’t technically count. For the record, the board did meet monthly. Shoulda kept it!
2024 Predictions
With interest rates dropping, a plan to build housing on the vacant lot at Orange and Elm Street will be approved, and construction will begin.
The property may change hands first.
The historic 17,322 square-foot two-story domed-ceiling marble-floored Corinthian-columned former Union Trust public bank-teller lobby across from the Green at the corner of Church and Elm Streets (now the empty first floor of a renovated apartment building) will become a regional super-scale Escape Room destination, with a mix of permanently curated rooms and revolving temporary rooms designed by guest curators.
Nine years later, the protected Edgewood Avenue cycle track/protected bike lane from Forest Road to Park Street will finally be completed.
I know that’s going way out on a limb, so here’s a safer prediction …
Those “delineators” that are supposed to keep cars out of the Edgewood Avenue bike lane will continue to be knocked down, replaced, and argued over by bloodthirsty traffic-calming advocates.
A jury will finally be selected to begin the trial of Qinxuan Pan for the 2021 murder of Yale graduate student Kevin Jiang.
The city and the police union will reach a contract a year after the last one expired.
It won’t stop the exodus of cops from the department to higher-paying, lower-stress communities.
Dixwell Alder Troy Streater will fall short in his quest to have Donald Trump removed from Connecticut’s 2024 presidential ballot, but Trump will still lose Connecticut. And Streater will continue making news helping his constituents and raising issues.
By February, Donald Trump will live inside of all our heads through the end of 2024.
The city’s mental health will not benefit.
Mayor Justin Elicker will declare pickleball the city’s official sport.
The city’s mental health will benefit.