Can Malloy’s $2.7M Beat Lamont’s $6M?

Dan Malloy expects his opponent, Ned Lamont, to spend twice as much money on their upcoming Democratic gubernatorial primary. Malloy called that good news — evidence that he can win.

Call it the New Math of Connecticut Politics.

Malloy (pictured) broke down that math in an interview during a New Haven stop, in which he discussed what has become a central issue in the upcoming Aug. 10 primaries: the ability of the state’s new ​“clean elections” systems to level the playing field between millionaire candidates and everyone else.

This is the first test of that proposition, the first year that Connecticut’s new law affects statewide races.

Two businessmen with no significant political experience are financing their own campaigns for governor: Democrat Lamont and Republican Tom Foley. They’ve each already spent millions of dollars and blanketed the airwaves with commercials.

Two opponents with years in elected office — Democrat Malloy, Stamford’s former mayor; and Republican Michael Fedele, the current lieutenant governor and a former state representative — are making use of the new clean elections law to obtain millions of public dollars.

The law won’t give Malloy and Fedele the same amount of money. By raising $250,000 in contributions of $100 or less, and agreeing not to accept money from lobbyists or state contractors, they qualify for up to $2.5 million each for the Aug. 10 primary under the Citizens Election Program created under the law. By contrast, Lamont has already spent around $3 million and is expected to burn through $6 million by Aug. 10.

(A federal court ruling on Tuesday put the future of some parts of the campaign finance system in question. But the ruling doesn’t appear to affect the primary campaign.)

You don’t need to match a big spender one to one, Malloy argued in the interview, at Bru Cafe on Orange Street. You need enough to advertise on TV, field a statewide vote-pulling organization — and have time to discuss issues like campaign finance reform rather than ​“spending all my time locked in a room” dialing for big-donor dollars, Malloy said.

“It’s enough [money] to get a message out,” Malloy said of the $2.7 million he can spend (counting the public match at the $250,000 he raised in small donations). ​“You can spend a lot of money selling vinegar. It’s not going to be wine.”

Malloy’s campaign is clearly counting on his use of the public money — and Lamont’s choice to opt out of the system — to score points with voters. It has emphasized the issue in campaign ads. The slogan: ​“Values and Experience Money Can’t Buy.”

How much do voters care about the issue? Especially in a Democratic primary — dominated by the kind of activist-oriented voters who supported passage of Connecticut’s clean elections law — they care a lot, Malloy claimed. He said he hears about it regularly on the trail.

Indeed, Ned Lamont has lost some key support because of it. Most notable is Tom Swan.

Swan was the man who made Ned Lamont a name in Connecticut (and, briefly, national) politics. He convinced Lamont to run for U.S. Senate against four-term incumbent Joe Lieberman in 2006. Then Swan ran the campaign and pulled a stunning upset victory in the Democratic primary. (Lieberman came back and held onto the seat by running as an independent in the general election.)

This year Swan’s sitting out the gubernatorial primary. He said he’s not taking sides because the organization he runs, the Connecticut Citizen Action Group (which for years pushed for the clean elections law), decided not to endorse either Lamont or Malloy. In 2006, CCAG endorsed Lamont. It almost did this year, too.

“We were very close to Ned. His choosing not to participate in the [public financing program] had some people not wanting to reward that,” Swan said. ​“It was definitely a contributing factor.”

Aldon Hynes, an early key staffer in Lamont’s 2006 run, is also sitting out the governor’s primary race. ​“The concern about Ned not using public financing is a very big concern of mine. That’s the lead reason I did not go with him,” said Hynes, who served as Lamont’s 2006 technology coordinator. ​“I hear [the same sentiment] from a lot of different people.”

Lamont’s Solution: Make It A Match

Lamont said he, too, has heard support for the clean elections law and frustration about big-money influence from voters on the campaign trail — but not in a way that has hurt his campaign.

“They said they wish everyone opted into public financing, so we have a level playing field,” he said.

Lamont has made the case that until everyone participates in the clean elections system, agreeing to the same limit on spending, it makes no sense for Democrats to hand a race over to a big-spending self-financer like the leading Republican in the governor’s race, Tom Foley.

From the start of the campaign, Lamont has made the case to Democrats that he should be the nominee because he has the dough to go dollar-for-dollar against a wealthy Republican in a general election.

He said he does support the campaign finance law. Because of Supreme Court decisions like Buckley v. Valeo, Connecticut can’t require all candidates in a race to participate in the system. However, Connecticut should increase the dollars it gives participating candidates to match every dollar a self-financer spends, Lamont argued. Right now the amount is capped at $2.5 million in a gubernatorial primary and $6 million in a general election.

Lamont dismissed concerns that that would cost taxpayers too much money. Instead, it would lower the cost of the campaign financing system, he argued, because fewer candidates would self-finance if they no longer saw an advantage in it.

Malloy called Lamont’s position on the issue ​“hypocritical.” If he support the system, he should run on it rather than use his wealth as an advantage in the primary, Malloy argued.

Lamont responded that he’s running ​“clean” by refusing to accept tainted donations.

“Everybody knows I’m not taking any special interest money. No PAC money. No lobbyist money. That’s the way I was four years ago. That’s the way I am today,” he said. ​“Nobody’s doing business with my state or city. It’s a clean campaign.

“I salute the people who use public financing. It gives them an opportunity to compete. That’s great … [But] it gives the Democrats the best chance to win if I can match them. It’s a clean campaign. … I’m going up with no strings attached.”

The public-financing issue is not as central to the campaign as Malloy claims, Lamont insisted. Above all the race is about jobs, he said. On Aug. 10 voters will test that proposition, along with the idea that $2.7 million can compete with $6 million.