YNHH Covid Count Back To Mid-March #s

Covid hospitalizations across the Yale New Haven Health system have more than doubled in two weeks, reaching numbers last seen in mid-March, and with a second peak expected by the end of December.

YNHHS Chief Clinical Officer Thomas Balcezak and CEO Marna Bogrstrom gave that update Wednesday morning during the regional hospital system’s latest Covid-19 virtual press conference, held online via Zoom and Facebook Live.

Borgstrom said that YNHHS — which includes seven different hospital campuses in Connecticut and Rhode Island, including in New Haven on York Street and at the former St. Raphael’s — currently has 210 Covid-positive inpatients systemwide. That’s up from 90 just over two weeks ago, and up from 26 at the end of September.

The bulk of the currently hospitalized patients — or 125 in total — are in New Haven. That local hospitalization number is up from 51 two weeks ago. And it comes amidst a regionwide surge in local Covid cases, as predicted by higher concentrations of Covid RNA in the Greater New Haven area’s wastewater and a higher testing positivity rate across the state.

“This is a very significant rise,” said Borgstrom (pictured), precipitating Yale New Haven Hospital’s transition to a ​“Code D” disaster alert and curtailing of nearly all hospital visitations because of the rate of community spread.

She said the current systemwide hospitalization number is almost exactly on par with how many Covid-positive inpatients YNHHS had soon after the pandemic first hit in mid-March.

“We are heading into what is going to seem like a long, cold and dark winter,” said Balcezak. ​“If this trend doesn’t reverse itself, we are going to be seeking a peak at the end of the December” or soon after New Year’s. ​“That’s daunting.”

He said that the hospital system’s current forecasting projects a peak at that time of between 400 and 600 hospitalized inpatients. While much higher than the current rate, that’s still significantly lower than the 800 hospitalized systemwide during the first peak back in late April.

“I’m grateful for that,” he said. ​“As we progress in time, I’m hopeful that number can decrease.”

Balcezak (pictured) said there are a number of other promising — relatively speaking — trends amidst the daunting climb in new hospitalizations.

Back in mid-March, he said, roughly 15 percent of the sickest Covid patients were on ventilators. That number this time around is down to 5 percent.

“Our treatment protocols have improved,” he said. As has ​“the science nationally and internationally about what treatments, pharmacological and nonpharmacological, work.” He said that the hospital system’s pulmonary critical care doctors are now more expert about when to use ventilators, how to manage the use of high flow oxygen, and when to give patients steroids. All of that has resulted in the use of fewer vents, along with fewer complications.

He also pointed to the promising press release recently put out by Pfizer, which announced that its Covid-19 vaccine appears to be 90 percent effective at warding off the virus. Part of that trial is taking place in New Haven.

This is just a preliminary assessment, Balcezak cautioned, and has not yet been peer reviewed by independent scientists. But it is being overseen by the Food and Drug Administration. ​“I have great personal confidence” that this vaccine will be properly vetted by federal regulators, he said, and that an emergency use authorization could be granted for the vaccine in a matter of weeks.

“I know the public is tired,” he said. ​“But now is not the time to let down our guard.” Quite the opposite: He urged New Haveners and everyone else listening to continue to practice social distancing, mask wearing, clean hand hygiene, and to avoid social gatherings as the virus continues to spread.

That includes doing Thanksgiving over Zoom or some other online platform instead of having family over, if possible.

“There is no perfect solution here,” he said, ​“other than not gathering.” Personally, he added, he won’t be having his parents over for the holiday. ​“Because I just don’t feel it is safe.”

Click on the Facebook Live video below to watch the full press conference.